This new dictatorship is as old as GutenbergHere also the discussions ahead so complexAfter that we will make a development planMargin of manoeuvreYet these are not so disturbingThe recession has put an end to this state of affairsNew York the Dow Jones completed the month at 9Little by little the city is specific argues its DirectorOr is someone authorized to the franchisorObjective enact standards for January 1 2010But this suggestion is far from making unanimity in the professionSign of the times, the Germany yesterday successfully launched a duty to 10-year inflation. The coverage ratio, which reflects the request of the investor for this paper, has reached 1.7 a level considered Honourable for relatively expensive titles. "The German debt Agency has changed his because, until recently, it showed a lack of interest for the indexed to inflation, note René Defossez, at Natixis.". Now she thinks to issue more. ""finanzagentur"indeed mentioned a possible doubling of the amounts raised in this strain, if the operation yesterday was. Tuesday, his counterpart, the France Treasury Agency (AFT) announced the forthcoming establishment of an indexed title of maturity from 10 to 30 years.
These events show that the market is preparing for a return of inflation. According points dead inflation securities to 10 years, the market anticipates now the prices by about 2 in the United States and Europe. The change of scenario has been rapid and radical. It was underpinned by signs of improvement in the global environment in recent months. The beige of the Fed, unveiled yesterday, book was still poor conditions State; It got even worse in some regions. However, five of the 12 regional offices of the Central Bank noted that "the decline in business cycle showed signs of slowdown."
Cryptic message
Inflation expectations back also as a result of the recent boom in oil prices itself powered by the prospects of economic recovery. Yesterday, the price of a barrel of crude oil rose to more than 71 dollars, one above since the month of October. The decline in stocks of oil in the United States and the comments of the exporting countries cartel have supported the movement. These days, several experts have revised upward their forecasts. The bond market indexed on the inflation that has regained a normal liquidity, is now again dependent on the oil trend.
Finally, the market wondered how central banks will manage the out of the crisis. "Central bankers are aware that they must not give the impression of being late;" "they must convince their ability to resume extensively injected liquidity into the financial circuit during the crisis", analyses the strategist of Natixis. The speech also began to influence. Axel Weber, head of the Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank (ECB), yesterday said the challenge for his institution. "Raise the level of rates in a pre-emptive manner, even if this is not required by the evolution of prices in the medium term, poses a real challenge for communication, but should meet," he said. A cryptic message, which, for the specialists, shows nevertheless that the ECB is concerned about inflation out of the crisis. In the United States, the operators have begun to consider a monetary tightening by the less dramatic than expected employment report.
This environment is unfavourable to the Government bonds. Yesterday, the U.S. rate to 10 years is tended by 8 points, to 3.94 and the 2 years of 4 points to 1,335. The French OAT 10 years crossed the cap of 4, while short rates also tended.
